Interesting November Stock Options for AAPL
Consistently, one of the more popular stocks people enter into their stock options watchlist at Stock Options Channel is Apple AAPL -1.27% (NASD: AAPL). So this week we highlight one interesting put contract, and one interesting call contract, from the November expiration for AAPL.
The put contract our YieldBoost algorithm identified as particularly interesting, is at the $455 strike, which has a bid at the time of this writing of $8.25. Collecting that bid as the premium represents a 1.8% return against the $455 commitment, or a 20.7% annualized rate of return (at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost).
Selling a put does not give an investor access to AAPL’s upside potential the way owning shares would, because the put seller only ends up owning shares in the scenario where the contract is exercised. So unless Apple Inc sees its shares decline 5% and the contract is exercised (resulting in a cost basis of $446.75 per share before broker commissions, subtracting the $8.25 from $455), the only upside to the put seller is from collecting that premium for the 20.7% annualized rate of return.
Worth considering, is that the annualized 20.7% figure actually exceeds the 2.5% annualized dividend paid by Apple by 18.2%, based on the current share price of $479.00. And yet, if an investor was to buy the stock at the going market price in order to collect the dividend, there is greater downside because the stock would have to lose 5.01% to reach the $455 strike price.
Always important when discussing dividends is the fact that, in general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of Apple Inc, looking at the dividend history chart for AAPL below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 2.5% annualized dividend yield.
Turning to the other side of the option chain, we highlight one call contract of particular interest for the November expiration, for shareholders of Apple Inc (NASD: AAPL) looking to boost their income beyond the stock’s 2.5% annualized dividend yield. Selling the covered call at the $505 strike and collecting the premium based on the $9.05 bid, annualizes to an additional 21.6% rate of return against the current stock price (this is what we at Stock Options Channel refer to as the YieldBoost), for a total of 24.1% annualized rate in the scenario where the stock is not called away. Any upside above $505 would be lost if the stock rises there and is called away, but AAPL shares would have to advance 5.4% from current levels for that to occur, meaning that in the scenario where the stock is called, the shareholder has earned a 7.3% return from this trading level, in addition to any dividends collected before the stock was called.
The chart below shows the trailing twelve month trading history for Apple Inc, highlighting in green where the $455 strike is located relative to that history, and highlighting the $505 strike in red:
The chart above, and the stock’s historical volatility, can be a helpful guide in combination with fundamental analysis to judge whether selling the November put or call options highlighted in this article deliver a rate of return that represents good reward for the risks. We calculate the trailing twelve month volatility for Apple Inc (considering the last 249 trading day closing values as well as today’s price of $479.00) to be 32%.
In mid-afternoon trading on Monday, the put volume among S&P 500 components was 794,127 contracts, with call volume at 998,515, for a put:call ratio of 0.80 so far for the day, which is unusually high compared to the long-term median put:call ratio of .65. In other words, there are lots more put buyers out there in options trading so far today than would normally be seen, as compared to call buyers.